As markets navigate a phase of consolidation and conservatism, investors remain vigilant for opportunities that emerge in an environment of macroeconomic uncertainty. On July 18, 2025, Bajaj Broking Research highlighted UPL and Varun Beverages as the best stock recommendations for the day, with positive potential for gains based on technical signals and overall market trends.
Below is a closer look at today’s market backdrop and the rationale behind these picks.
Nifty Index: Indications of Strength in Sideways Action
The Nifty index has been going sideways in a narrow trading range, reflecting investor indecision clearly. With so many unknowns—right from India-US trade negotiations to corporate Q1 FY26 earnings—many are opting to take a wait-and-watch stance.
Yet, the broader structure of the index tells a story of resilience. Over the past 12 trading sessions, the Nifty has retraced only about 50% of its previous uptrend, indicating that current sideways movement is more of a healthy consolidation than a sign of weakness. This pattern is further reinforced by the formation of a higher base around the 25,000 mark—a key psychological and technical support level.
The 25,255 level has proven to be a strong resistance area, coterminous with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A final surge past this would unlock doors to 25,600 over the subsequent weeks. Yet, if that fails to happen, then short-term range-bound action between 25,000 and 25,250 might be the order of the day. With macroeconomic uncertainties and the Q1 earnings season, short-term volatility would be expected, but the underlying sentiment would remain cautiously optimistic.
Bank Nifty: Consolidation With Underlying Strength
The same consolidation can be seen in the Bank Nifty index, which has been oscillating between 56,500 and 57,600 in the past ten sessions. The overall scenario is still driven by global trade uncertainty and impending earnings for financials.
Even with the tight range, the Bank Nifty continues to hold its 20-day EMA in place, which has been a support ever since April. Along with positive market breadth, this indicates a higher high-higher low structure intact—a characteristic of an ongoing uptrend.
Technically, the support level between 56,000 and 55,500, which lies at the 50-day EMA and prominent Fibonacci retracement levels, provides a stable platform for bullish entries. Any breakout above the 57,600 level could be a signal of the next upleg. In the meantime, analysts view the current consolidation as a buy-on-dips chance, particularly for the long-term investor.
Stock Picks of the Day: UPL & Varun Beverages
In this market context, Bajaj Broking Research has targeted two particular stocks exhibiting robust bullish indication and short- to medium-term appreciation potential.
UPL (United Phosphorus Limited)
Buy Range: ₹680.00 – ₹696.00
Target Price: ₹763.00
Stop-Loss: ₹645.00
UPL is exhibiting a typical “cup and handle” breakout chart pattern on daily charts—a positive bullish sign. This pattern is typically responsible for indicating trend continuation following a consolidation phase.
The stock is also:
Trading over short-term moving averages
Demonstrating positive divergence on the RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Aided by higher volumes in the vicinity of breakout points
These signs indicate that the momentum is gaining, and a strong breakout can lead the stock to the target price of ₹763. A stop-loss price of ₹645 provides risk management without sacrificing volatility.
Varun Beverages
Buy Range: ₹480.00 – ₹492.00
Target Price: ₹536.00
Stop-Loss: ₹457.00
Varun Beverages has formed a breakout from a declining channel, which had kept the stock in a downtrend since April 2025. The breakout with high volumes reaffirms the reversal and signals the return of buying interest.
Principal clues to support this suggestion are:
Sustained price movement above short-term moving averages
Daily RSI positioned above its average, reflecting bullish momentum
Structural change in price action from lower lows to possible higher highs
This makes Varun Beverages a strong contender for swing traders and short-term investors looking for momentum plays.
Strategy Going Forward
Technical setups and price action are more important now than ever in today’s market, considering there are no clear macroeconomic catalysts. For investors, this current phase presents a window of opportunity to build quality stocks that are gaining strength compared to the general market.
Both UPL and Varun Beverages both fit that story very well—providing not only near-term breakout upside but also fitting longer-term bullish themes.
All that being said, risk management is still paramount. Applying proper stop-loss levels, suggested by the analysts, provides cover against unexpected reversals in markets—particularly in a volatile, event-driven market.
July 18th can be a consolidation day in larger indices, but stock-specific plays like UPL and Varun Beverages highlight how disciplined technical analysis can lead to winners even in flat markets. For traders looking for action outside of index movements, these stocks can be the catalyst necessary to beat the market in the near term.
As ever, keep an eye on earnings announcements, international trade trends, and industry leads to bet more effectively on the changing market environment.
